Tällä sivulla voit lukea NOAA SWPC:n julkaisemat kommentit auringon havaitusta aktiivisuudesta edellisen vuorokauden kohdalta sekä muutaman seuraavan vuorokauden kattavan ennusteen. Uusin alkuperäinen julkaisu on luettavissa täällä. Tiedot päivittyvät kaksi kertaa vuorokaudessa.
Solar activity was at low levels following a C1.3 flare at 19/1845 UTC, and subsequent C1.8 flare at 19/1911 UTC, from a region just beyond the SE limb. The three numbered regions on the visible disk were mostly unchanged and inactive throughout the period. An area of flux emergence was noted near N06E28 and will be monitored for numbering, if needed. A slow moving CME off the western limb was first noted in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 19/0430 UTC. Source location was difficult to determine. Large scale reconnection was observed in multiple SUVI wavelengths, starting around 19/0230Z near S11W33, however no prominent filament was identified. Initial analysis of this event indicated a miss well ahead of Earth. However, additional modeling will be needed when STEREO data becomes available. .
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels on 20-22 Jul, with a slight chance for M-class flare activity. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,174 pfu at 18/1830 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .
Solar wind parameters continued at background levels. Total magnetic field strength averaged between 2-5 nT, the Bz component ranged between +/- 4 nT, and solar wind speeds decreased to below 300 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a positive orientation.
Background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail on 20 Jul through early 21 Jul. Late on 21 Jul, a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS is likely to move into a geoeffective position, bringing enhancements to the solar wind environment. Further enhancements are likely on 22 Jul as the CIR passes with the onset of the HSS.
The geomagnetic field was quiet under an ambient solar wind environment.
The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet levels on 20 Jul and most of 21 Jul. By late on 21 Jul, unsettled to active conditions are likely, with a chance for G1 (Minor) levels near the end of the period. By 22 Jul, unsettled to active periods are expected, with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely as the CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.