Tällä sivulla voit lukea NOAA SWPC:n julkaisemat kommentit auringon havaitusta aktiivisuudesta edellisen vuorokauden kohdalta sekä muutaman seuraavan vuorokauden kattavan ennusteen. Uusin alkuperäinen julkaisu on luettavissa täällä. Tiedot päivittyvät kaksi kertaa vuorokaudessa.
:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2023 Mar 23 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2023 Mar 23 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center 24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a long duration C2.5 flare from Region 3256 (S23E02, Cho/beta) at 22/1957 UTC. Region 3257 (S23E08, Cao/beta) contributed a C1.7 flare at 22/1201 UTC and Region 3262 (S19E65, Hsx/alpha) produced a C1.7 flare at 22/1605 UTC. The remaining regions were quiet, stable, and otherwise unremarkable. There were several small and narrow CME signatures in LASCO coronagraph imagery, mainly off the east limb, but none appear to be Earth-directed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares over 23-25 Mar.
A slightly enhanced solar wind environment prevailed for most of the period. Total field strength averaged near 6 nT, Bz moved mostly northward, and wind speeds steadily decreased from 550 km/s to around 450 km/s by 23/0400 UTC. The phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector. At around 23/0600 UTC, additional enhancements began as fluctuations were observed in total field, Bz, and Phi. Total field increased to 13 nT, Bz saw southward deflections to -13 nT, and the Phi angle began to oscillate between positive and negative sectors. These escalations are likely a reflection of either the possible grazing influence from the 20 Mar CME, or the early arrival of the CIR ahead of the positive polarity CH HSS. At this point, it is too early to tell which.
Further enhancements are likely as a reflection of either the CME arrival or the onset of the CIR ahead of the negative polarity CH HSS. Exacerbated conditions are likely to continue through 25 Mar as the CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.
The geomagnetic field had returned to mostly quiet to unsettled conditions until just after 23/0830 UTC when active levels were observed.
G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected following the possible glancing influence of the 20 Mar CME or the anticipated earlier arrival of a CIR ahead of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Nearby transients may further elevate conditions on the 23rd depending on how they interact with this enhanced solar wind environment. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely to be reached on 24 Mar with the onset of the CH HSS. G1 (Minor) storm levels remain likely into 25 Mar.