Tällä sivulla voit lukea NOAA SWPC:n julkaisemat kommentit auringon havaitusta aktiivisuudesta edellisen vuorokauden kohdalta sekä muutaman seuraavan vuorokauden kattavan ennusteen. Uusin alkuperäinen julkaisu on luettavissa täällä. Tiedot päivittyvät kaksi kertaa vuorokaudessa.
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 3450 (S23W23, Eso/Beta) underwent consolidation in its trailing spots and produced a C2.5 flare at 04/0756 UTC. Region 3452 (N07E07, Eac/Beta) decayed slightly in its intermediate area and produced a C2 flare at 04/0847 UTC. Region 3453 (N07W29, Cao/Beta) was also in slight decay, particularly in its trailing spots while being the culprit of the largest flare of the period, a C3 at 04/0952 UTC. Region 3455 (N21, L=274) decayed to plage and Region 3457 (S11E62, Hrx/Alpha) was numbered as it rotated into view. The easterly CME from 02 Oct that was first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery around 1824 UTC was determined to have possibly been from dimming that was observed near AR 3450 in GOES-16 195 Angstroms at approximately 02/1704 UTC. This CME presents a fairly odd profile, deflecting eastward, given the suspected source location was relatively close to meridian and therefore confidence is low. WSA-Enlil returned this event with a bulk of the material missing behind Earths orbit on the 7th while delivering a weak glancing blow. Next, there was northwesterly CME first observed by SOHO LASCO C2 imagery around 03/1236 UTC. This event was determined to have originated beyond the eastern limb. However, as it faster than the aforementioned 02 Oct event, some interaction between the two can not be ruled out with this faster CME speeding along the arrival of the 02 Oct event some what sooner. Although, confidence is low in that outcome. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on 04 Oct as of the time of this writing.
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) through 07 Oct.
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a seemingly mostly nominal solar wind environment. Total field averaged between 6-9 nT. The Bz component was primarily +/- 5 nT with a handful of southward deflections reaching up to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds floundered quite a bit, ranging between ~375 to ~475 km/s. However, when comparing to the limited ACE spacecraft data, these speeds were likely not physical and were likely sub 400 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a positive (Away) solar sector.
Solar wind parameters are anticipated to become enhanced due to positive polarity CH HSS influence and remain so throughout the forecast period, 05-07 Oct. An additional enhancement, primarily from the 02 Oct CME, is expected to arrive 07 Oct.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active intervals through 06 Oct under positive polarity CH HSS effects. Primarily unsettled to active levels, with a chance for an isolated G1 (Minor) storming period, are expected 07 Oct with weak, glancing effects from the 02 Sep CME event.