Tällä sivulla voit lukea NOAA SWPC:n julkaisemat kommentit auringon havaitusta aktiivisuudesta edellisen vuorokauden kohdalta sekä muutaman seuraavan vuorokauden kattavan ennusteen. Uusin alkuperäinen julkaisu on luettavissa täällä. Tiedot päivittyvät kaksi kertaa vuorokaudessa.

Julkaistu 25.7.2024 kello 15:30

Auringon aktiivisuus

  • Edellinen vuorokausi

    Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3751 (S08W77, Dao/beta-gamma) was the culprit of the majority of the activity as it approached the western limb. This AR was responsible for a M2.9 flare at 24/1721 UTC. This event was accompanied by a type II and IV radio sweeps. Regions 3761 (S10W63, Dao/beta-gamma) and 3762 (S12E03, Eai/beta-gamma-delta) remained the largest and most magnetically complex spot groups on the visible disk, but were relatively quiet. Region 3766 (S08E58, Cro/beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. A CME observed by SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 24/1736 UTC. This two was likely associated with the M2.9 flare from 3751. Analysis and modeling determined a miss ahead of Earths orbit. An additional halo CME was observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery, first visible near 25/0130 UTC in C3. This is possibly associated with a C8.3 flare from Region 3762 at 25/0041 UTC. However, there is evidence of a far sided major flare close to the same time. Analysis of this event is still underway at the time of this summary.

  • Lähipäivien ennuste

    Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) through 27 Jul.

Aurinkotuuli

  • Edellinen vuorokausi

    Solar wind parameters, while gradually waning, were slightly disturbed from the shock arrival on late 23 Jul from what was likely the 21 Jul halo CME associated with AR 3757. Total field gradually decreased from 15-19 nT, ending the period around 8 nT. The Bz component of the IMF remained northward or near neutral. Solar wind speeds ranged from ~280 km/s to ~350-360 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

  • Lähipäivien ennuste

    Influence from a CME that left the Sun on 21 Jul is expected to continue through early on 25 Jul. Shock enhancement from a CME departing the eastern limb early on 23 Jul is likely by late 26 Jul. An additional enhancement is likely by early on 27 Jul due to glancing CME influences from the C4.5 flare events from AR 3751 on 23 Jul.

Geomagneettinen kenttä

  • Edellinen vuorokausi

    The geomagnetic field was quiet.

  • Lähipäivien ennuste

    An early, isolated active period can not be ruled out on 25 Jul as CME influences wane. Otherwise, mostly quiet conditions are expected to persist through late 26 Jul when unsettled to active levels are expected with any shock arrival from the 23 Jul east limb event. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely to commence early on 27 Jul with any glancing effects from the CME produced by the C4.5 flare event from AR 3751 on 23 Jul.

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