Tällä sivulla voit lukea NOAA SWPC:n julkaisemat kommentit auringon havaitusta aktiivisuudesta edellisen vuorokauden kohdalta sekä muutaman seuraavan vuorokauden kattavan ennusteen. Uusin alkuperäinen julkaisu on luettavissa täällä. Tiedot päivittyvät kaksi kertaa vuorokaudessa.
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3435 (N08E10, Dki/beta-delta) continued to be the noisiest region on the disk, producing an M8.7 flare at 21/1254 UTC. This AR was little changed overall, growing slightly while maintaining its delta magnetic configuration. Regions 3441 (N08W16, Dri/beta-gamma), 3442 (S10E39, Csi/beta-gamma), and 3443 (N27W26, Dao/beta) all exhibited relatively rapid growth and development as the latter two produced low-level C-class flares. Region 3438 (N11E09, Dai/beta) produced C-class flare activity as well, but was otherwise stable. Region 3444 (N24E37, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. New spots were observed on the NE limb and also trailing just behind AR 3442, but remain unnumbered at this time as we await USAF observatory reports. A CME associated with the aforementioned M-class flare event was observed in coronagraph imagery at approximately 21/1353 UTC. Analysis and modeling of this event indicates a hit at Earth by late on 24 Sep. A subsequent CME off the NE is being further analyzed at the time of this summary. It appears to be associated with the long duration M1 flare that peaked at 22/0336 UTC from AR 3435.
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels over 22-24 Sep with M-class flare activity.
Solar wind parameters reflected a gradual transition to a more nominal environment. Total field averaged between 3 and 5 nT, the Bz component was mostly +/- 4 nT, and wind speeds steadily decreased from ~430 to 400 km/s. Phi was variable between solar sectors.
An enhancement in the solar wind is likely on 22 Sep due to anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS. An additional enhancement on 23 Sep is possible due to the periphery of a passing CME that left the Sun on 20 Sep followed by another likely enhancement with the arrival of the CME that left the Sun on 21 Sep.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled to active levels on 22 Sep due to negative polarity CH HSS onset. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely 23-24 Sep due to first shock and glancing influences from the 20 Sep CME followed by the arrival of the 21 Sep CME by late on the 24th.