Tällä sivulla voit lukea NOAA SWPC:n julkaisemat kommentit auringon havaitusta aktiivisuudesta edellisen vuorokauden kohdalta sekä muutaman seuraavan vuorokauden kattavan ennusteen. Uusin alkuperäinen julkaisu on luettavissa täällä. Tiedot päivittyvät kaksi kertaa vuorokaudessa.
Solar activity increased to moderate levels with an M1.2/Sn at 21/0008 UTC from Region 4087 (N13W42, Hsx/alpha). The other flare producer of the period was Region 4093 (S06E52, Cao/beta) with a few minor C-class flares. Newly numbered Region 4096 (N07E72, Hsx/alpha) has come into view but has yet to produce any activity. All other regions were either stable or in decay. There have been no Earth-directed CMEs in available coronagraph imagery. .
Solar flare activity is expected to remain low as most regions on the disk are fairly simple in their magnetic complexities. There remains a 25% chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a 5% chance for R3 (Strong) activity through 24 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... Ongoing influence from the coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) originating from the large, southern hemisphere positive polarity CH maintains an enhanced electron flux at geostationary orbit. GOES-19 and GOES-18 have seen fluxes oscillating around the 1000 pfu during their respective diurnal maximas. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been at background. .
Solar wind parameters reflected persistent CH HSS influence. Total field (Bt) has been between 4-8 nT for most of the period. The north-south (Bz) component oscillated between +7/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 550 km/s to 679 km/s in the middle of the period and is trending down towards 550 km/s again. Phi was mostly positive.
Solar wind parameters will continue to see effects from the CH HSS through 23 May with waning influences 24 May. Model guidance indicates wind speeds will drop from around 520 km/s to 360 km/s during this transition. An enhancement of the solar wind is likely on 23 May due to a weak glancing blow from the filament eruption that occurred on 17 May. This is also the time in which the reverse shock, co-rotating interacting region (CIR) of the CH HSS is expected to pass as well.
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels due to continued CH HSS influences.
Unsettled conditions are likely 22 May. An enhancement of the geomagnetic field up to active levels is likely 23 May due to the arrival of the CME and CIR mentioned in the Solar Wind section. A similar scenario happened at the beginning of the HSS (17 May) which produced one synoptic period of Kp=6 (G2-Moderate) storming. Its unlikely to reach these levels again but G1-Minor storming cant be ruled out completely. -Bri