Tällä sivulla voit lukea NOAA SWPC:n julkaisemat kommentit auringon havaitusta aktiivisuudesta edellisen vuorokauden kohdalta sekä muutaman seuraavan vuorokauden kattavan ennusteen. Uusin alkuperäinen julkaisu on luettavissa täällä. Tiedot päivittyvät kaksi kertaa vuorokaudessa.
Solar activity was at low levels. A long-duration C2 X-ray event was observed at 14/1235 UTC from Region 3076 (N16W30, Cao/beta). Associated with the event was a Type II radio sweep (est 629 km/s). NSO GONG imagery from the El Teide site observed a semi-circle filament to the N of the region lift off beginning at about 14/1137 UTC. The approximate 10 degree long, E/W oriented filament was centered near N22W14 and was also observed lifting off in GOES-16 SUVI 195 and 304 imagery at about the same time. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery indicated a partial-halo CME, with the bulk of the shock directed primarily off the W limb, beginning at 14/1248 UTC. Initial analysis and model output suggests Earth impact mid to late on 17 Aug. A filament eruption, centered near S21W43, began after 15/0400 UTC. A long-duration X-ray event associated with the eruption reached C3 at 15/0522 UTC. Subsequent coronagraph imagery indicated a CME signature from the eruption but more is needed to determine if an Earth-directed component was present. A Tenflare (130 sfu) was observed at 15/0613 UTC from activity around Region 3078 (S24E01, Dai/beta-delta). The region also produced a C1/Sf flare at 14/1918 UTC with associated Type II radio sweep (est 591 km/s). Some ejecta was associated with the event but looks to be headed well south of Sun-Earth line. The region developed penumbra through most of its spots and gained a delta classification. Region 3079 (S11W46, Cai/beta-gamma) produced a C5/Sf at 14/1400 UTC, the largest of the period. Some minor development was observed around its trailer spots. Region 3081 (N12E24, Dhi/beta) exhibited some decay around its leader spot but minor growth around its trailer spot. The last remaining spotted region on the visible disk, Region 3074 (S16E58, Hsx/alpha) was mostly stable.
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) flares on 15-17 Aug.
Solar wind parameters indicated the waning effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 4-6 nT, while the Bz component varied between +/-4 nT. Solar wind speeds trended downward from a peak of ~500 km/s to ~450 km/s by the periods end. Phi was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to wane over 15-16 Aug. However, an increase in parameters is expected on 17 Aug due to the arrival of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS coupled with possible CME influence.
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet levels.
Mostly quiet levels are expected on 15-16 Aug as positive polarity CH HSS effects diminish. Conditions are likely to increase to active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions as a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective on 17 Aug coupled with possible transient influence CME activity on 14 Aug.