NOAA's Kp-forecast for Feb 2 - Feb 4
This forecast was updated Feb 2 2023 at . All times are local time in Finland.
| <
| 2.7 | 2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| 02-05 | 05-08 | 08-11 | 11-14 | 14-17 | 17-20 | 20-23 | 23-02 | 02-05 | 05-08 | 08-11 | 11-14 | 14-17 | 17-20 | 20-23 | 23-02 | 02-05 | 05-08 | 08-11 | 11-14 | 14-17 | 17-20 | 20-23 | 23-02 | ||
| Feb 2 | Feb 3 | Feb 4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
The current surface of the sun in different wavelengths
Courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
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Perustelut ennusteille
| Aihe | Perustelu (päivitetty viimeksi 2.2.2023 kello 02:30) |
|---|---|
| Auringon aktiivisuus | Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) on 02-04 Feb, mostly due to activity from Region 3207. |
| Aurinkotuuli | Periodic enhancements in the solar wind parameters are possible on 02 Feb with suspected CH HSS influence. Late on 03 Feb, CH HSS effects are expected to begin a gradual decline, returning to a more background-like state by late 03 Feb/early 04 Feb. |
| Geomagneettinen kenttä | The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, on 02 Feb. By 03 Feb, activity is expected to gradually diminish as negative polarity CH HSS gradually subsides. |
Roihupurkaukset eli flaret
Alla olevassa taulukossa näkyy viimeisten 3 vuorokauden aikana auringossa havaitut roihupurkaukset. Ajat ovat Suomen aikoja.
| päivä | alkoi | maksimi | loppui | luokka | alue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.2. | 00:33 | 00:48 | 01:00 | C5.7 | 3204 |
| 1.2. | 19:50 | 20:01 | 20:14 | C3.7 | 3204 |
| 1.2. | 10:11 | 10:16 | 10:20 | B9.8 | ? |
| 1.2. | 03:20 | 03:28 | 03:33 | C1.8 | 3207 |
| 1.2. | 03:00 | 03:04 | 03:08 | C1.0 | 3207 |
| 1.2. | 00:07 | 00:08 | 00:11 | C1.5 mahdollinen CME | 3207 |
| 31.1. | 21:28 | 21:28 | 21:38 | C2.4 mahdollinen CME | 3207 |
| 31.1. | 20:14 | 20:20 | 20:24 | C1.3 | 3204 |
| 31.1. | 18:12 | 18:16 | 18:29 | C3.1 | 3207 |
| 31.1. | 17:17 | 17:28 | 17:44 | C1.3 | 3206 |
| 31.1. | 15:12 | 15:20 | 15:24 | B9.1 | 3207 |
| 31.1. | 12:46 | 13:00 | 13:07 | C4.8 | 3207 |
| 31.1. | 08:52 | 08:58 | 09:04 | C1.1 | ? |
| 31.1. | 02:21 | 02:25 | 02:30 | C1.5 | 3204 |
| 31.1. | 23:54 | 00:07 | 00:22 | C1.9 | 3204 |
| 30.1. | 22:53 | 22:58 | 23:07 | C2.1 | 3200 |
| 30.1. | 20:45 | 20:51 | 21:02 | C1.4 | 3206 |
| 30.1. | 19:45 | 19:53 | 19:57 | C2.9 | 3207 |
| 30.1. | 17:52 | 18:00 | 18:14 | C1.0 | ? |
| 30.1. | 13:53 | 14:07 | 14:20 | C3.1 | 3207 |
| 30.1. | 09:39 | 09:46 | 09:51 | C1.7 | 3207 |
| 30.1. | 08:15 | 08:20 | 08:31 | C2.1 | ? |
| 30.1. | 08:15 | 08:20 | 08:31 | C2.1 | 3207 |
| 30.1. | 06:04 | 06:13 | 06:19 | C1.5 | 3207 |
| Probability of flares | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| C | M | X | |
| 1.2. | 75 % | 15 % | 5 % |
| 2.2. | 75 % | 15 % | 5 % |
| 3.2. | 75 % | 15 % | 5 % |
Sunspots
List of the sunspots and other active regions that were visible to the earth yesterday or today.
| Chance of flares | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region # | Location | Number of sunspots | Type | Area of the group | C-class | M-class | X-class | First observed |
| 3208 | 1 | B | 10 | 10 % | 1 % | 1 % | 19:51 1.2.2023 | |
| 3207 | S11 E51 | 7  | B | 90  | 20 % | 1 % | 1 % | 20:52 30.1.2023 |
| 3206 | S22 E19 | 4 | B | 30 | 5 % | 1 % | 1 % | 18:24 29.1.2023 |
| 3205 | S23 W91 | 2 | A | 60 | 5 % | 1 % | 1 % | 19:03 28.1.2023 |
| 3204 | N24 W90 | 3 | B | 80 | 20 % | 1 % | 1 % | 07:27 28.1.2023 |
| 3203 | N17 W66 | ? | ? | ? | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 00:29 26.1.2023 |
| 3201 | N24 W48 | 12 | A | 50 | 5 % | 1 % | 1 % | 20:34 24.1.2023 |
| 3200 | N21 W70 | ? | ? | ? | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 19:10 22.1.2023 |
WSA-Enlil-mallin ennuste
